Old Farmer’s Almanac 2017 winter weather report: is it more accurate than last year’s?

The 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac is out, and with it comes the annual discussion about whether their winter weather predictions are accurate or may need to be taken with a hefty grain of salt. The prediction for this winter? “Above normal snowfall in the north,” reports the Almanac. “Winter will be much colder than last winter.”

Well, let’s hope so. The Pacific Northwest last winter experienced the return to snowier conditions, and so West Coasters were thankful for the strong El Niño cycle that blasted the shores of North America. On the East Coast and in certain regions of the Rocky Mountains, however, El Niño meant a dry, warm winter. And the hot temperatures and liquid precipitation were in contrast to the Almanac’s prediction earlier in 2016.

This week last year, we reported on the 2016 Farmers Almanac winter weather report and had some misgivings about the forecast. Their prediction that, “Winter will be cold again,” differed from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report earlier in 2016 warning of a strong El Niño cycle that would be the bearer of warm weather for most of the U.S.

And as NOAA reported on March 8, 2016, most regions of the U.S. suffered from a heat wave in winter 2015-16. “The February average temperature for the Lower 48 states was 5.7°F above the 20th century average, which ranks as the seventh warmest February on record.”

So will the Farmer’s Almanac 2017 winter weather prediction hold water—or snow?

On August 10, NOAA updated their reporting on the current state of the Pacific Ocean temperature that dictates the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña cycles.

“Earlier this year, one of the strongest El Niño events on record drew to a close, and temperatures in the tropical Pacific have steadily cooled off,” NOAA reports. “Now, climate experts are keeping an eye on that cool spot and have issued a La Niña watch.”

This means that as cool waters make their way eastward in the pacific, the jet stream, which dictates storm patterns for North America, will shift and herald a completely new weather pattern. This change means we may see colder weather than last year.

As NOAA explains in their La Niña web report, “La Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of El Niño to the United States—wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and dryer and warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern tier. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.”

But in their latest La Niña Watch, NOAA admits that there is around a 50 percent chance of a La Niña event developing in August and a 50-60 percent chance that it will continue through the coming winter. These numbers are down by 10-15 percent compared to those NOAA posted in July, which means that if we do get a La Niña event, it may be a weak one.

So what of the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2017 winter weather prediction? Only time and the oscillations of the Pacific Ocean will be able to tell.

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To read the 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac, visit www.almanac.com.